The exchange rate works through two channels
The same FX move changes the company's reporting in HKD and the client's RMB return. Counting only one channel understates the exposure.
Cross-Border Research Memo on a Commercial Vehicle Group
CZHY-FIN-MEMO-941 · Valuation rating · FX flip point · three-year cash plan
The client invests in Hong Kong with RMB as the base currency, so the exchange rate moves both the company's reporting and the actual return. Give a per-share HKD value and rating, the FX level that flips the rating, and whether cash suffices for three years.
Cross-borderValuation ratingFX flip pointCash planning
22 files · 20 worksheets
20worksheets
16scoring criteria
69agent turns in the longest reference rollout
2.42Mcumulative prompt tokens in one rollout
01
Highlights
The flip has to be a checkable level
The task asks for the exchange-rate level that flips the rating and the size of the move required, with a calculation another analyst can redo.
State the method before the ranking
Naming the most sensitive element requires first explaining how you compare them; a ranking without a stated method cannot be verified.
Three-model mean score 0.4731
Three models answered under the same criteria for a mean of 0.4731. Counting only one of the two FX channels is the most common way runs lose points here.
02
Instruction excerpt
An excerpt of the instruction the agent actually receives, showing the task setup and constraints.
instruction.md · 2,153 chars
You are an investment adviser in a securities firm's cross-border wealth business, preparing a research memo on a commercial vehicle group for a cross-border client. The client's base currency is RMB, investing through Stock Connect, QDII or an offshore brokerage account, so the exchange rate affects both the company's reporting and the client's actual return.
The client needs to judge the investment rating at the current price, the valuation sensitivity and the future cash plan; the memo must turn the material into executable conclusions rather than a list of numbers.
Task
- Give a per-share HKD value and an investment rating, with the basis and a recommendation on whether to invest.
- Holding other valuation factors fixed, at what HKD/RMB level does the rating flip, and how large a move is that? Show a calculation that can be rechecked.
- Identify the most sensitive element, explain the comparison method, and give one sensitivity step with the resulting per-share value and rating change.
- Give the year-end cash balance and annual movement you accept, judge whether the next three years of cash suffice, and state the actions you recommend.
NOTEEnglish translation of the original Chinese instruction; the deliverable format requirements are omitted.
03
Attachments
Everything visible inside the agent container, with statistics generated from the task package. Original files ship with the full sample package.
| File | Type | Size | Bytes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 昭远科技_底稿.xlsxValuation research workpaper: forecasts, valuation and cash flow (20 worksheets) | xlsx | 20 sheets | 1.9 MB |
| 材料说明.mdMaterial note: currency, unit and period basis | md | 293 chars | 831 B |
04
Scoring design
16independent scoring criteria
15 scoring items1 penalty items
Full criteria text, weights and reference answers ship with the complete data package.
16 criteria: 13 binary plus 3 five-level items across eight scoring dimensions.
- 16 criteria: 15 positive scoring items and 1 penalty items (negate)
- Each criterion is judged separately by an agent judge (individual mode), reproducible and auditable
- Judge credentials are injected only into the verifier; the agent container has no scoring channel
- Full criteria text and reference answers ship with the complete data package
Conclusion correctness3
Professional standards3
Instruction following2
Factual faithfulness2
Numerical accuracy2
Argument quality2
Structure1
Compliance1
05
Model results
Trajectory statistics from frontier models in real agent harnesses. One turn is one model call; the context curve shows how state accumulates over a long-horizon task.
| Model | Agent turns | Tool calls | Cumulative prompt tokens | Peak context | Time | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.8Claude Code · Harbor | 23 | 1.43M | 109K | — | Completed | |
| GPT-5.6-solCodex · Harbor | 80 | 2.27M | 70K | — | Completed | |
| Qwen3.8-MaxClaude Code · Harbor | 31 | 2.42M | 118K | — | Completed |
06
Specification
| Task ID | CZHY-FIN-MEMO-941 |
|---|---|
| Task format | Harbor task.toml · schema 1.4 |
| Package version | 1.1.0 |
| Agent time limit | 3 h |
| Verifier time limit | 5 h |
| Agent container | 2 vCPU · 8 GB memory · 30 GB storage |
| Network | Only for agent harness installation |
| Tool set | filesystem · shell · python |
| Scoring isolation | Separate verifier containerJudge credentials are injected only into the verifier and are invisible to the agent |
| Instruction length | 2,153 characters |
| Difficulty | A3 (three-model mean 0.4731) |
| Reference solution | oracle reward 1.000 |
| Workpaper size | 20 worksheets · 1.9 MB |
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